Iran President Ahmadinejad offers talks

President Ahmadinejad accused the West of trying to ruin negotiations in order to put pressure on Iran

Iran is ready to revive talks with the West but tougher sanctions will not force it to give into demands over its nuclear programme, its president says.

On Monday, the EU banned new oil contracts with Iran, saying it was not confident Tehran's nuclear plans were "exclusively peaceful".

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said it was evident that "those who resort to coercion are opposed to talks". 

Tehran insists its nuclear programme is for energy purposes.

Negotiations between Iran and the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany ended in a stalemate in January 2011.

President Ahmadinejad is the highest-ranking Iranian official since then to offer to resume talks.

In a speech made in Kerman, southeastern Iran, and broadcast on state television, he accused the West of trying to ruin negotiations in order to put increased pressure on Iran.

"It is the West that needs Iran and the Iranian nation will not lose from the sanctions," the president said.

"It is you who come up with excuses each time and issue resolutions on the verge of talks so that negotiations collapse,'' he said.

"Why should we shun talks? Why and how should a party that has logic and is right shun talks? It is evident that those who resort to coercion are opposed to talks and always bring pretexts and blame us instead."

BBC correspondent Kasra Naji says Tehran has failed to clarify exactly what kind of talks it is prepared to enter into.

In the last two rounds of meetings, in Turkey and Geneva, Iranian officials were happy to talk about anything except the West's concerns about its nuclear programme, our correspondent added.

EU sanctions

EU foreign ministers formally adopted the sanctions against Iran at a meeting in Brussels.

In a joint statement, UK Prime Minister David Cameron, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Iran had "failed to restore international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear programme".

The EU said the sanctions prohibit the import, purchase and transport of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products as well as related finance and insurance. All existing contracts will have to be phased out by 1 July.

Investment as well as the export of key equipment and technology for Iran's petrochemical sector is also banned.

EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said the purpose of the sanctions was "to put pressure on Iran to come back to the negotiating table".

Iran branded the embargo "unfair" and "doomed to fail", but it was welcomed by US President Barack Obama, who said it showed international unity against the "serious threat" posed by Iran's nuclear programme.

The EU currently buys about 20% of Iran's oil exports.

IAEA Iran visit

Earlier this week, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN's nuclear watchdog confirmed it would send a team to Iran between 29 and 31 January "to resolve all outstanding substantive issues".

In a report last November the IAEA said it had information suggesting Iran had carried out tests "relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device".

Iran sells most of its oil to countries in Asia. The EU and the United States are now working to persuade Asian countries to reduce their purchases from Iran as well.

But Beijing has criticised the European Union for its ban. China - a big importer of Iranian crude oil - has long opposed unilateral sanctions targeting Iran's energy sector. It says the nuclear dispute should be resolved through dialogue.

On Thursday, China's official Xinhua News Agency quoted its foreign ministry as saying: "To blindly pressure and impose sanctions on Iran are not constructive approaches."

Iran has already threatened to retaliate to the sanctions against it by blocking the Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Gulf, through which 20% of the world's oil exports pass.

The US has said it will keep the trade route open, raising the possibility of a confrontation-bbc.

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Iran sanctions will hit its economy, but not kill it

Experts say recent sanctions from the U.S. and Europe will crimp Iran's ability to sell its oil, get foreign imports, and are at least partly behind a huge spike in prices there.

Over the last few months Western governments have been tightening the economic noose around Iran.

The idea is to use economic pressure to force Iran's government to give up its nuclear program, which it says is for peaceful purposes but many think is actually intended to produce a weapon.

But sanctions can also have a huge impact on a nation's people. In Iraq, the United Nations estimated half a million children were killed by malnutrition and disease in the 1990s as a result of international sanctions and a refusal by Saddam Hussein to accept a UN program to alleviate the suffering there.

In Iran's case expert opinion varies as to just how hard sanctions will hit that economy. But there is consensus around two points: 1) It won't be as bad as Iraq. 2) It's already hurting Iranians and the suffering is bound to get worse.

"The sanctions are increasingly biting," said Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, an Iranian-born professor of economics at Virginia Tech. "The Iranians are having a hard time paying for things they import, and getting paid for things they export."

Tightening the oil vise: The latest round of sanctions from the United States, the UK and Europe aims to directly restrict Iran's ability to sell its oil.

They accomplish that goal largely by going after Iran's central bank, which finances Iran's 2.2 million barrels a day in oil exports, and any international bank that does business with Iran's central bank.

Iran oil sanctioned by Europe

The sanctions are supposed to allow transactions in essential items like food and medical supplies.

The problem, say experts, is that international banks become nervous and ban all transactions with the country rather than risk the wrath of the United States or Europe. Banks that are thought to be in cahoots with the Iranians might find themselves banned from doing business in the world's largest and second largest economies.

Hospitals in Iran are having a hard time getting advanced medial equipment from abroad because they can't find banks to finance the transactions, said Jamal Abdi, policy director at the National Iranian American Council.

Previous sanctions that prohibited the sale of items that can have both civilian and military uses, like airplane parts, has resulted in air disasters that have killed 1,000 Iranians over the last decade, said Abdi.

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CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY IN IRAN

CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY IN IRAN

My Dear Compatriots and Freedom loving citizens of the World,

Today I am submitting the following report to the United Nations Security Council on crimes against humanity, ordered by Mr Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, and carried out on the people of Iran. The focus of the attached "Report on Crimes Against Humanity Committed in Iran on the Orders of Mr. Ali Khamenei Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran" are the crimes against humanity committed to suppress popular dissent after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's fraudulent re-election in June 2009. The evidence in this report provides sufficient cause for the United Nations Security Council to take up this matter and refer it quickly to the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court in The Hague. However, for the past thirty-three years, the Supreme Leaders of the Islamic Republic have had in place a policy and record of oppression against ethnic communities and religious minorities. I intend to file further supporting reports documenting the abuses of these Iranian citizens and will summarize these crimes in another report.


This attached report along with the cover letter is addressed to the following recipients:

The Right Honorable President Hu Jintao of the People's Republic of China
The Right Honorable President Nicolas Sarkozy of the French Republic
The Right Honorable President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia
The Right Honorable President Barack Obama of the United States
His Excellency Prime Minister David Cameron of the United Kingdom


His Majesty King Mohammed VI of Morocco
Her Excellency Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany
His Excellency Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho of Portugal
His Excellency Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India
The Right Honorable President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan
The Right Honorable President Juan Manuel Santos Calderan of Colombia
The Right Honorable President lvaro Colomof Guatemala
The Right Honorable President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan
The Right Honorable President Jacob Zuma of South Africa
The Right Honorable President Faure Gnassingba of Togo



The Right Honorable Mark Lyall Grant, Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the United Nations
The Right Honorable Vitaly Churkin, Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations
The Right Honorable Wang Min, Permanent Representative of the People's Republic of China to the United Nations
The Right Honorable Susan Rice, Permanent Representative of the United States to the United Nations
The Right Honorable Gerard Araud, Permanent Representative of France to the United Nations
The Right Honorable Agshin Mehdiyev, Permanent Representative of Azerbaijan to the United Nations
The Right Honorable Nestor Osorio, Permanent Representative of Colombia to the United Nations
The Right Honorable Peter Wittig, Permanent Representative of Germany to the United Nations
The Right Honorable Gert Rosenthal, Permanent Representative of Guatemala to the United Nations
The Right Honorable Hardeep Singh Puri, Permanent Representative of India to the United Nations
The Right Honorable Mohammed Loulichki, Permanent Representative of Morocco to the United Nations
The Right Honorable Abdullah Hussain Haroon, Pakistan Ambassador to the United Nations
The Right Honorable Jose Filipe Moraes Cabral, Permanent Representative of Portugal to the United Nations
The Right Honorable Baso Sangqu, South African Permanent representative to the United Nations
The Right Honorable Kodjo Menan, Permanent Representative of Togo to the United Nations



I want to thank the team of legal and human rights experts who worked tirelessly to put together this important report. I strongly urge the members of the United Nations Security Council to give top priority and their highest consideration to this vital matter and expeditiously refer these crimes to the International Criminal Court.

The people of Iran have suffered far too long and today expect help and support from the international community. I therefore encourage all justice-minded people around the world to take action and ask their respective governments - particularly those who are members of the security council - to take positive action on this complaint.


Reza Pahlavi

Your Excellencies,


I address this message to you to alert you of the grave acts ordered by the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Mr Ali Khamenei. These acts constitute systemic and continuing violations of human rights and are subject to a classification as "crimes against humanity" as defined in Article 7 of the Rome Statute. These acts are directed against all Iranian citizens of all social classes, who are demanding that their human rights, as defined by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, be respected.

In addition to the matters related in the recent report of Mr. Ahmad Shahid - Special Reporter on the Human Rights Situation in Iran - there are ample evidences indicating that the regime which deprives Mr. Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Ms Zahra Rahnavard and Mr. Mehdi Karroubi of their freedom violates all international laws. None of them have been able to benefit from the legal rights that an ordinary person prosecuted by the justice of his or her own country must have access to. They have in fact been refused the right to defend themselves and to benefit from legal representation.

In this wave of repression that affects the entire population, the Islamic Republic has used cruel, inhuman and degrading means and methods against many Iranian citizens, including but not limited to : Behnam Ebrahimzadeh, Bahman Ahamdi Amoui, Mansour Osanlou, Hasan Asadi Zeidabadi, Emaddin Baqi, Ayatollah Boroujerdi, Emad Behavar, Hossein Palani, Ali Pour Soleiman, Mohammad Reza Pour Shajari , Mostafa Tajzadeh, Majid Tavakoli, Reza Joshan, Hamid Reza Khadem, Mehdi Khodaee, Reza Khaajee, Mohammad Davari, Arzhang Davoudi, Majid Dorri, Hossein Ronaghi Maleki, Ali Reza Sepahee Laeen, Issa Saharkhiz, Ghasem Sholeh Sadi, Keyvan Samimi, Heshmatollah Tabarzadi , Abulfazl Abedini, Javad Alikhani, Sad Gholamhosseinpour, Abbas Kakaee, Javad Lari, Farshad Maroufi, Mohammad Reza Moghayse, Hamid Moazzani, Abdollah Momeni, Bahareh Hedayat, Mahboobeh Karami, Hojatoleslam Arash Honarvar, Ahmad Zeidabadi, Ali Jamali, Mohsen Aminzadeh, Mohsen Mirdamadi, Feizollah Arabsorkhi, Esmaeel Sahabeh, Mohammad Esmaeel Khourbak, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Massoud Bastani, Farshad Ghorbanpour, Davood Soleimani, Behzad Nabavi, Mohsen Safai Farahani, Shabnam Madadzadeh, Saeed MatinPour, Hassan Fathi, Mehdi Mahmoudian, Priest Yousef Nadarkhani, Saeed Malekpour, Arash Sadeghi, Farshid Fathi, Shahin Zeinali, Arya Aramnejad, Sasan Vahebi, Reza Shahabi, Saeed Matinpour, Ali Malihi, Mohammad Seif, Mohammad Javad Mozaffar, Haniyeh Farshi, Mohammad Sedigh Kabodvand, Ali Akbar Ajami, Mahdiye Golroo, Fereshte Shirazi, Ronak Saffarzadeh, Mahbobeh Karami, Mosa Saket, Reza Malek, Saeed Maasouri, Amir Khosro Dalirsani, Zeinab Jalalian, Shirkooh Maarefi, Farah Vazehan, Sama Norani, Mahvash Sabet, Ziya Nabavi, Arash Honarvar Shojaei, Fariba Kamalabadi, Jamalodin Khanjani, Afif Naeemi, Saeed Rezaiee, Behrouz Tavakoli, Vahid Tizfahm, Parastou Dowkoohaki, Javad Emam, Saeed Jalalifar, Amir Khoram, Babak Dashab, Fatemeh Kheradmand, Alireza Rajaee, Hossein Zarrini, Seyed Alireza Beheshti Shirazi, Fereidoon Seydi Rad, Jalil Taheri, Mohammad Farid Taheri Ghazvini, Mohammad Tavassoli, Siamak Ghaderi, Abolfazl Ghadiani, Mohsen Mohagheghi and Mohammad Reza Motamednia. These and hundreds of other political prisoners from all categories of the Iranian people represent all democratic tendencies and are now oppressed.

Security forces and intelligence services of the Islamic Republic use the accusation of "crimes against national security" to justify their arbitrary arrests and to remove all proof and evidence attesting to the serious and systematic human rights violations in which they are engaged. On this basis, lawyers and defenders of human rights are prevented from accomplishing their mission: they are intimidated and some are arrested and imprisoned. Nasrin Sotoudeh, Abdulfatah Soltani, Hengameh Shahidi, Mohammad Seifzadeh and Kohyar Goudarzi are now silenced for these reasons. Their only crime is to have demanded respect of human rights for their compatriots.

As a founding member of the United Nations, Iran has signed the Universal Declaration of Human Rights to express its willingness to join the community of nations working for peace and mutual understanding among the people. Despite that, leaders of the Islamic Republic are part of an ongoing violation of these universal values. The acts they commit, or which they give orders to commit, consist of serious violations of the provisions contained in this Declaration, particularly Articles 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10, 12, 19, and Article 20 paragraph 1 and Article 21.

The only thing we can do is to report the names of the victims of the Islamic Republic, to provide documentary evidences and to inform the world about their situation. In addition to the names we have mentioned, there are hundreds, even thousands, who are held in prisons. There are hundreds, even thousands, who are subjected to cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment. The silence of the international community concerning the human rights situation of political prisoners in Iran can but lead to a worsening of the repression and encourage the Islamic Republic to continue its policy of terror.

As it is based on religious law, the Constitution of the Islamic Republic gives all political, military and economic power to the Supreme Leader, Mr Ali Khamenei, whose institution is at the top of the regime's hierarchy. The powers he holds give him the possibility to control and intervene without limitation in all aspects of the public and private life of Iranians.

As Supreme Leader, Mr. Ali Khamenei nominates six of the twelve members of the Guardian Council of the Constitution, which then selects, in accordance with his instructions, eligible persons for the political institutions. The Head of the judiciary is nominated by him and can be dismissed at will. The Head of the judiciary implements the penal policy decided by the Supreme Leader and nominates the six others members of the Guardian Council of the Constitution in accordance with his instructions.

The Supreme Leader also controls the activity of the members of the regime's Expediency Discernment Council, which works with him to preserve the regime and is composed of six members of the Guardian Council of the Constitution, the President of the Islamic Republic, the President of the Parliament, the Head of the judiciary, and ten or so persons nominated by him.

The Supreme leader controls the activity of the Assembly of Experts, indeed elected by the people but whose candidates must satisfy the requirements he defines through the Guardian Council of the Constitution. This Assembly works with him on the development of a political-religious doctrine in order to preserve the authority of the clergy in the country. Finally, he nominates the senior officials of the army and the police, the members of local councils, and the head of national radio and television services.

Thus, the person primarily responsible for the crimes committed by the Islamic Republic is the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic: Mr. Ali Khamenei.

For a long time, the Islamic Republic has managed to hide its true face of a totalitarian dictatorship. However, since the fraudulent re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the people of Iran have experienced increased and unprecedented repression, implemented on the basis of a plan conceived, considered and prepared by the highest authorities of the regime. Thus, during the crackdown, security forces of the Islamic Republic have committed crimes against humanity, as defined by Article 7 of the Rome Statute, including:

- Murder;

- Imprisonment;

- Torture and rape;

- Enforced Disappearance;

- Persecution of various groups for political, religious or sexual reasons.

These crimes were not committed in a specific place or a particular region of Iran, but throughout the country, and against any Iranian civilian whose only crime was to demand free elections and the respect of the people's vote. From the evidence that we have updated, it is clear that these crimes were deliberately committed against the civilian population, implementing political decisions taken by the highest authorities of the regime, and primarily by Mr. Ali Khamenei.

I accuse Mr. Ali Khamenei to be the person with primary responsibility for all crimes committed against Iranian citizens. What happened after the 2009 election meets all criteria of crimes against humanity, as defined by Article 7 of the Rome Statute.

For these reasons, I call on the Heads of State and Governments of member countries of the Security Council to refer these crimes to the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, in accordance with Article 13 b) of the Rome Statute, so that he can investigate the crimes committed by leaders of the Islamic Republic against Iranian civilians.

I also call on the Heads of State and Governments of member countries of the Security Council to significantly increase pressure on the leaders of the Islamic Republic by demanding the immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners. As the Islamic Republic is a signatory to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, the international community have to call the Iranian regime to comply with its international obligations and with the fundamental rights of the Iranian people.

We believe that such a reaction from the international community, in response to the behaviour of the Iranian regime against its citizens, will send a strong message to the leaders of the Islamic Republic.

Your Excellencies,

The focus of the attached "Report on Crimes Against Humanity Committed in Iran on the Orders of Mr. Ali Khamenei Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran" are the crimes against humanity committed to suppress popular dissent after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's fraudulent re-election in June 2009. However, for the past thirty three years, the Islamic Republic has had in place a policy and record of oppression against ethnic communities and religious minorities. We intend to file further supporting reports documenting the abuses of these Iranian citizens and we will summarize these in another report.

I respectfully request that you refer this urgent matter to the International Criminal Court. I assure you that there will be no resolution of the crises caused by the Islamic Republic unless it is forced to respect the fundamental rights of Iranian citizens.


Reza Pahlavi

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Iranian Film Wins Golden Globe

Director Asghar Farhadi (left) and actor and screenwriter Peyman Moaadi pose with their Golden Globe for best foreign language film.

The Iranian film "A Separation" has won the best foreign language film award at the Golden Globe prizes in Los Angeles.

The Golden Globes are ranked second in prestige after the Oscars in the annual Hollywood film awards.

“A Separation,” from writer-director Asghar Farhadi, tells the story of a married couple facing the dilemma of whether to leave Iran.

It beat out rival films from China, Belgium and Spain, as well as "In the Land of Blood and Honey," the bilingual film about the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina directed by U.S. actress Angelina Jolie.

Farhadi, speaking after the ceremony to journalists in Beverly Hills, said that Iranians and Americans have "no issues with each other."

"In my opinion, the people [of the two countries] have no issues with each other. The people of Iran, as I mentioned earlier, are very peace-loving," he said. "I hope not just for Iran but all over the world that no one experiences war, and war becomes something that we discuss as something from the past."

“A Separation” earlier won the Golden Bear for best film at the Berlin Film Festival.

In the other Golden Globe prizes, "The Descendants" won for best drama, "The Artist" for best musical or comedy, Martin Scorsese won best director for "Hugo," George Clooney won best actor for "The Descendants," and Meryl Streep got best actress for "The Iron Lady."

Film: Separation won Golden Globe 2012

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Iran Film Festival Gives Western Audiences Glimpse Into Closed Society

A Separation FULL Movie leaked Part 1/9 

A SEPARATION - ASGHAR FARHADI 

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Iran Film Festival Gives Western Audiences Glimpse Into Closed Society

"A Separation" follows the strained relationship between an Iranian couple
The much-acclaimed Iranian film, "A Separation," headlined Prague's inaugural Iranian Film Festival this week, in a showcase event highlighting the best of Iran's distinguished film industry.

Ashgar Farhadi's film has received plaudits in Iran as well as in the international film community after being the first Iranian film to win the prestigious Golden Bear award at the Berlin International Film Festival and being nominated for Best Foreign Language Film at the Golden Globe Awards in the United States.

The Golden Globes will be held on January 15.

"A Separation" explores the complex issue of migration and poses an uncomfortable question that has confronted a generation of Iranians living in Iran and abroad: to stay in Iran and be slowly strangled by the rigors of Iranian society or flee to the West and become irrelevant?


The film tells the story of the strained relationship between a middle-class couple, Nader and Simin. Nader is driven by his duty to stay in Iran and take care of his ageing and ill father. Simin, meanwhile, is driven by a need for escape and longs to leave Iran, especially for the sake of their young daughter, Termeh.

A series of heated arguments follow between the couple and a climax is reached when Simin leaves home and demands a divorce from Nader, which instigates a series of unforeseen and tragic events.

The film was warmly received by audiences in Prague. Martina Spatna, one of the chief organizers of the film festival, says films like "A Separation" are important because they give Western audiences a rare glimpse into Iran's closed society.

"[Our aim was to] introduce great Iranian films to audiences in the Czech Republic and let the people here discover a part of Iranian culture. The achievement is to represent the Iranian culture and to express Iranian reality," Spatna said.

Spatna, who is also the director of the Czech inter-cultural agency, EasyTalk, says Iranian cinema provides a unique link between Iran and the West.

"In terms of culture there is a lot to share among the countries. We hope Iranian cinema will produce even more great films, which will be popular around the world so that there might be even more links between Iran and other countries," Spatna said.

Increasing Censorship

Iranian journalist Reza Seddigh, who lives in Malaysia, says cinema in Iran remains one of the few links the country has to the outside world. He says it is vital to maintain that link, even amid growing government pressure on the film industry in Iran.

"For independent filmmakers in Iran whose films are not being distributed and screened [for political reasons], foreign film festivals, especially in Europe, are very important as it gives them an opportunity to screen their films. It also allows them to be in direct contact with Western audiences," Seddigh said.
Seddigh's comments come amid a government crackdown on the Iranian film industry, which has been traditionally critical of the Islamic regime. The government has accused the industry of having sympathy with Iran's opposition Green Movement.

Farhadi, as one of Iran's most acclaimed directors, has experienced the brunt of increasing government censorship.

In September 2010, Iranian officials closed the set of "A Separation" for a week after comments Farhadi made at a film festival in Iran, where he reportedly said he wished two dissident Iranian filmmakers, with connections to the opposition Green Movement, were at the event. Farhadi later apologized and production was resumed.

A more significant blow to the Iranian film industry was an order earlier this month by Iran's Culture Ministry to close the House of Cinema, the country's leading independent film-promotion institute.

Disagreements between Iran's House of Cinema and the Culture Ministry reportedly began in 2009 after it invited a Hollywood delegation to visit the Islamic Republic.

Tensions were further fueled by another incident in 2010, when five Iranian filmmakers were accused and arrested for collaborating with the BBC.

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Why is Britain ramping up sanctions against Iran?

David Cameron and Barack Obama meet outside No 10 Downing Street during a presidential visit in May 2010.
Sabre-rattling at Washington's behest is an idiocy, and likely to do little other than escalate the steps to open conflict

'The dog returns to its vomit, and the sow returns to her mire/ And the burnt fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the fire." Kipling was right. Britain is out of Iraq and desperate to get out of Afghanistan. So why gird ourselves for a fight with Iran, a proud country of 75 million people with whom we cannot go to war without taking leave of our senses?
Do any of Britain's leaders really think further economic sanctions will stop Iran's nuclear programme? I cannot believe it. Sanctions did not topple Saddam Hussein, Slobodan Milosevic or Muammar Gaddafi; they led merely to war. Sanctions have been imposed on Iran for 33 years because there was nothing else to do. They have done no good and almost certainly been counterproductive in reinforcing autocracy.
Washington has announced new commercial and financial sanctions on Iran, blacklisting anyone who does business with it. With an election in the offing, President Obama must show America's pro-Israel lobby that he is tough somewhere in the Middle East. The EU must this month decide whether to collude with the US in this dangerous game and ban Iran's oil exports. The threat was enough to get Tehran to test medium-range missiles in the Gulf, and its wilder heads to murmur about closing the Straits of Hormuz, thus blocking a third of the world's sea-borne oil.
This sabre-rattling – in the midst of a recession – is beyond stupid. No one has seriously doubted that Iran's government, surrounded by nuclear-armed or nuclear-allied powers, would one day seek a similar capability. It is the nature of well-resourced and insecure regimes to find comfort in "the ultimate weapon". It seems of no account that no war fought by a nuclear power has seen such a weapon even threatened. It was not a factor in Korea, Vietnam, the Falklands, the Caucasus, Kashmir or numerous Middle East conflicts. The one time such weapons were "on the table" was over Cuba in 1962 – and then they probably helped prevent war.
Any fool may say, you cannot be too careful. It is the motto of the arms race. Israel has a nuclear capability for that reason, and that is why Iran wants one. A pre-emptive Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear plants might postpone their work, but make eventual war more likely. I would prefer it if Iran had no such missiles, but that is hardly for Britain to say when it demands "the right" to its own. In this case, what matters is the avoidance of escalation, of the megaphone belligerence that makes some western leaders vulnerable to the "inevitability" of war.
The only question for the west over the last three decades has been how to respond to Iran's fundamentalist leadership and, more recently, its craving for nuclear status. The answer has been of startling ineptitude. The attempt to set up pro-west regimes in Iraq and Afghanistan led the west to upset the balance of power established by the Iran-Iraq war and the Taliban-Pakistan regime in Kabul. Now the Iraq occupation has secured for Tehran unprecedented influence in Baghdad. Its influence also penetrates deep into western Afghanistan, and its support for resistance movements in the Gulf sheikhdoms is said to be growing by the year. Where now the Foreign Office's famed Arabists?
The long experience of sanctions indicates that they suck the sanctioning powers into confrontation. Their imposition is a prelude either to inert hostility or to war. They embattle the victim regime, driving power and money to its ruling cadres. In Tehran, as in Tripoli and Baghdad in the 1990s, sanctions toppled nobody but made rulers and generals rich. They impoverish not just the poor but the mercantile and professional classes, denying them contact with the outside world. They hasten middle-class emigration and thus reduce the scope for political pluralism and opposition.
Government sources at the weekend rejected all this experience. They claimed tougher sanctions would "hasten Iran's economic collapse and deepen rifts within the regime, in the hope that saner voices will deem the price of pursuing nuclear weapons too high". This commits the democratic fallacy that totalitarian states react to economic pressure as democracies might. Sanctions do not initiate such a process. They just build walls. Meanwhile we are enraging Iran's scientific community by apparently condoning secret assassination as a way of impeding its nuclear programme.
The idea that any nation becomes more malleable when threatened from outside is absurd. A reasonable observer could assume that every utterance from Washington and London at present is scripted to bolster the Iranian leader, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, on his insecure throne. The west's threats must exhilarate the young bloods of the Revolutionary Guard and depress the opposition. They may be supported by Iran's émigrés, but the diaspora is seldom a reliable guide to politics in the home country.
Economic sanctions are coward's diplomacy. They purport to high moral stance but are merely a low-risk way of bullying the world. The danger is that they encourage militarist lobbies to escalate the steps that lead to open conflict.
Those who argue against unnecessary war are routinely asked the father's knee question, "So what would you do?" Taught since 1939 that Britain must be seen to do something, the British are programmed to meddle. There have been occasions in the last 50 years when it has been right to declare hostilities against other nations – the Falklands, Kosovo and the first Iraq war. But usually the answer to "what to do" about foreign regimes of which we disapprove is, quite simply, to do nothing.
For the most part, other nations' business is not ours. In the last 25 years Britain has mostly been useless at putting the world to rights – it has struggled to wrap itself in the tattered flag of empire, at vast expense but to little effect. It would have been better, far better, to maintain good relations with other states in the hope of assisting causes we profess to hold dear. As for rattling a sabre whenever Washington says so, that is the most humiliating idiocy.-Guardian

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Oil holds at $112 on Iran threats, strong data

Oil held around $112 a barrel on Wednesday, supported by fears of possible supply disruptions from Iran and by strong economic data from the United States and China.
Oil prices surged on Tuesday as Iran threatened to choke off crude shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz in retaliation against tougher sanctions from the West over its nuclear program.
Brent February crude rose 4 cents to $112.17 barrel by 1040 GMT, after rising more than 4 percent on Tuesday to settle at the highest since November 15. This represented the biggest one day gain since last May.
U.S. February crude was down 20 cents to $102.26 a barrel, following its highest close since May 10.
However, sluggish demand, particularly in Europe, could be put under further pressure by prices at these levels, said Olivier Jakob, analyst at Petromatrix in Zug, Switzerland.
"Iran is the supporting factor, but these price levels will hurt the economy, Europe oil demand with prices at these levels will be a total disaster."
He added that the euro's recent weakness against the dollar was making oil particularly expensive in the region, equivalent to $133 per barrel in 2008 terms.
Tensions between Iran and the West heightened further after Tehran issued its most aggressive statement yet as new U.S. and EU financial sanctions take a toll on its economy.
Tehran threatened to take action if the U.S. Navy moved an aircraft carrier into the Gulf but the U.S. dismissed it, saying it would keep sending carrier strike groups through the Gulf.
However many think the chance of Iran following through with its threats is fairly remote, and that prices will begin to reflect this.
"I don't think anyone thinks that Iran has anything to gain by doing it, and they will hurt themselves and their relationship with China," said Jeremy Friesen, commodity strategist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong.
Political risk from Kazakhstan was also a factor, with President Nursultan Nazarbayev on Wednesday extending until January 31 a state of emergency in the western oil city of Zhanaozen, where at least 16 people were killed last month-Reuters

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